Corona forecast for September, review for August

Corona forecast for September, review for August

Forecast for September: Looking back at August.

The forecast for August tended to be correct. India is at the center of the pandemic as predicted become. Due to the curfew, the virus has grown more slowly than expected. Instead of the forecast 900,000 deaths, there were only 850,000 deaths. There were 6.850 million active cases. Forecast 7 million. They have now been achieved. Due to the easing measures and unpredictable behavior of governments, predictions can only be made by trend. The peak of the pandemic was therefore not in August, but will only be reached at the end of September. In the USA and Brazil, with almost 550 deaths per 1 million inhabitants, partial herd immunity has taken priority, which is why there are no more increases there. The daily deaths are around 1000 a day. If there are 1,000 deaths per million inhabitants, the virus will recede on its own.

In Europe there was easing, which led to strong increases, especially in France and Spain. That is why a record of 300,000 new infections a day was reached yesterday.

However, the figures should be treated with caution, as can be seen in the example of Kosovo, where officially there are few cases but most of the cases were among those returning to Germany on vacation.In Africa, at least according to statistics, it has decreased.

My forecast for the end of September will be the peak of the pandemic worldwide. I'm leaving

1,050,000 dead

7.5 million active cases.

When that is over at Christmas in India, we can breathe again.

A vaccine can be expected to be approved in Germany by May 2021 at the latest